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HN
The problem arises when people talk about a single "death rate" without the proper caveats. It is well understood that the infection fatality rate varies with age, from 0.001% for those unde...
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
hacker news link | site us figures
>In healthcare we have astronomical costs that have not bought us more vitality, but an extended morbidity. Gone are the days of grandmothers with sinewy arms maintaining huge gardens. Obesity in the ...
show context + On: America's Growth Ponzi Scheme
HN
That would be a valid conjecture if we didn't had the ONS data already there are virtually no additional reported deaths for that age group above what PHE reports:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
> if you are under 45 and healthy your chances of dying from covid-19 are exceedingly small.Yes, I did say that.However,> as the ONS figures only a additionally include out of hospital deaths primari...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
HN
Other highlights:Death rate for under-45 is under 0.024%Look at the "Deaths incidence" tab of the graphs at the bottom to see actual deaths with the curve-fit model.EDIT: Meant to include in...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
HN
Two weeks after that the WHO released a widely cited report claiming a fatality rate of 3.4%."Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
Flu rates are based on all known knowledge, population testing, etc. We don't have that for covid-19. If you want a good apple-to-apples comparison of lethality of another pandemic, you need to find C...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
hacker news link | site new-york south-korea
Flu is generally well under 0.1% of those infected on average. If you're comparing them you want to either include or exclude asymptotic people from both populations. "Symptomatic Illnesses" https://w...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
That 45 million in your first link is Symptomatic Illnesses which represent ~2/3 of total cases as Approximately 33% of people with influenza are asymptomatic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
It seems the CDC has different data depending on where you look. The 45 million / 61,000 numbers are here, for the 2017-2018 season, see Figure 2:https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.htmlAnd on ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
According to the CDC web site, those numbers are 35.5M flu cases and 34,200 deaths (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html), giving an IFR of more like 0.1%. Which would put COVID-19 at m...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
Jakarta and Istanbul have a huge rise in deaths, similar to European countries, but they have suspiciously low recorded numbers of deaths officially due to Covid. http://archive.vn/vOoRpIt looks to me...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
hacker news link | site china new-york
Kinshasa, the capital of DR Congo, is a city with 11 million people. About the same size as Wuhan or New York City. According to [1] there were only 25 deaths due to Covid19 in the whole country. Why ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
3.4% was never stated to be anything but the case fatality rate. The WHO's statement was:>Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have diedIoannidis acknowledged that in his original STAT art...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
hacker news link | site germany south-korea
At various points in interviews and articles he used Diamond Princess, South Korea, Germany, Iceland as strong evidence of miniscule fatality rates, in every single case selectively ignoring that dea...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
hacker news link | site new-york
I was astonished by your 1/1000 figure and had to look it up... If anything, its too low. 15k deaths (proven+probable) in 8M people is almost 2/1000.https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
hacker news link | site new-york
Is there a write-up for this study? Or anywhere with data/methodology released?Also, is this particularly good news? Using the raw numbers from the headline and the deaths from here https://www1.nyc.g...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
Yes, but the age is a 10x factor, os CFR would be much different in Nigeria (average age is about 19) and Italy (average age 45). We have two good petri dishes:USS Theodore Roosevelt - 600 cases out o...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
HN
hacker news link | site new-york
The death rate of those requiring ventilation in NYC is closer to 88% https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
0.5% comes from Cuomo's presentation [1].Also your 50% seems very high to me. My understanding is that 50% is about the death rate of covid patients requiring ventilation, so the overall death rate of...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C