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I love the effort to quantify things! It's a great approach.I am sure there are a bunch of ways to nitpick but I appreciate the approach.I personally think you need a drop-down for age and your risk t...
show context + On: MicroCOVID: Estimate the Covid risk from your ordinary daily
hacker news link | site us chart
Because when you look at the excess deaths charts [1], there's nothing at all surprising before mid-March. Then from mid-March onwards, deaths (from all causes) go through the roof.So there simply was...
show context + On: Wuhan hospital traffic, search engine data indicate virus ac
In a previous report by Reuters, all 4,800 personnel were tested for COVID-19. 600 tested positive of which 360 were symptom-free leaving 240 that tested positive and showed symptoms. 1 person died ...
show context + On: U.S. Navy test shows 60 percent of carrier crew have coronav
Heinsberg study suggests a mortality rate of about 0.36%. This is high, but not "a big threat". Given that with 0.36% and 15% infection spread in the general population (like flu) you look a...
show context + On: For experts who study coronaviruses, a grim vindication
hacker news link | site world table
I'll give you an honest answer, but well, it's obvious. Yes, it's a big threat, it's clear if you pay attention. It's killed more than 100k people, a lot more than an annual flue. It's a horrible deat...
show context + On: For experts who study coronaviruses, a grim vindication
HN
Here is a WHO report from February saying the same thing:> Modeling is a helpful tool to try to account for missed cases, such as those that are mild cases potentially missed in current surveillance a...
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
> 21000 deaths is not "near zero"I'm not sure what your contrived narrative is, but actually it is near zero, far less than several other causes of death. (The annual mortality rate is over ...
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
HN
hacker news link | site new-york
There we go again. In NYC, 19 out of 100,000 people aged 18-45 died. (1)There are roughly 110M people in that age group in the U.S. so that would mean 21000 deaths if the virus would spread as widely ...
show context + On: Antibody Tests Point to Lower Death Rate for the Coronavirus
hacker news link | site china us timeline
Thanks for the info.If those dates are correct for the first week of Jan., then the CDC was actually very aggressive for a govt. agency, since Wuhan was still trying to cover it up that week. (See lin...
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
HN
hacker news link | site england france germany italy new-york spain
> The only rational option I see is Americans must be some of the healthiest people. Kidding asideThe US was fortunate to have considerable ICU capacity. That has kept the mortality rate far lower tha...
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
HN
The problem arises when people talk about a single "death rate" without the proper caveats. It is well understood that the infection fatality rate varies with age, from 0.001% for those unde...
show context + On: The CDC's Coronavirus Death Rate Estimates Are Too Low, Many
hacker news link | site us figures
>In healthcare we have astronomical costs that have not bought us more vitality, but an extended morbidity. Gone are the days of grandmothers with sinewy arms maintaining huge gardens. Obesity in the ...
show context + On: America's Growth Ponzi Scheme
HN
That would be a valid conjecture if we didn't had the ONS data already there are virtually no additional reported deaths for that age group above what PHE reports:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
> if you are under 45 and healthy your chances of dying from covid-19 are exceedingly small.Yes, I did say that.However,> as the ONS figures only a additionally include out of hospital deaths primari...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
HN
Other highlights:Death rate for under-45 is under 0.024%Look at the "Deaths incidence" tab of the graphs at the bottom to see actual deaths with the curve-fit model.EDIT: Meant to include in...
show context + On: Cambridge research team estimates 12% of England has been in
HN
Two weeks after that the WHO released a widely cited report claiming a fatality rate of 3.4%."Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
Flu rates are based on all known knowledge, population testing, etc. We don't have that for covid-19. If you want a good apple-to-apples comparison of lethality of another pandemic, you need to find C...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
hacker news link | site new-york south-korea
Flu is generally well under 0.1% of those infected on average. If you're comparing them you want to either include or exclude asymptotic people from both populations. "Symptomatic Illnesses" https://w...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
That 45 million in your first link is Symptomatic Illnesses which represent ~2/3 of total cases as Approximately 33% of people with influenza are asymptomatic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C
It seems the CDC has different data depending on where you look. The 45 million / 61,000 numbers are here, for the 2017-2018 season, see Figure 2:https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.htmlAnd on ...
show context + On: Preliminary test results suggest 21% of NYC residents have C